Lunedì, 22 Ottobre 2018

Economic outlook to remain weak in 2013 warns bank report


Milan, December 27 - The Italian economy is facing
another tough year in 2013, with the current recession
lingering, warns a new economic study released Thursday.
The country's gross domestic product won't do quite as
badly next year as this year, but GDP will slide by about 1% in
2013 compared with an average loss of 2.1% in 2012, says Intesa
The bank's research department, in a report on the
macroeconomic outlook, says the spread with German bonds will
average 100 basis points lower next year than the average in
That's good news for the national treasury and other
important borrowers.
The study says that the spread between Italy's 10-year bond
and its German counterpart will average 280 basis points next
year - a significant decrease compared with the 395 midpoint
estimated for 2012.
The spread should significantly decline in the second half
of 2013, although it may remain quite high in the next six
months, the bank warns.
And it warns that real economic growth might not be seen
for another three years.
"In our scenario, only in 2016 will GDP return to levels
seen before the last recession (which began in 2011), and it
will take many years to recover the pre-crisis highs," of growth
before 2007, said the report.
"This will have important implications with regards to the
size of the (domestic) production system and employment," in

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